Here we are at the end of this season with our hat in our hand. No doubt we did not see this coming. Everything went exactly as planned building the database during the Spring. There were no flashing red lights or anything to indicate the season results would do anything but represent what had occurred over the previous 5 seasons. But it was clear from Week 1 our data was honing in on losing propositions, reversing itself completely. What should have been a 60% winning season immediately morphed into a 40% losing season. It was clear from Week 3 that a major flaw was influencing the data. And that is the reason we advised to forget us this year around Week 3.
We look at this season from the 50,000 foot level. Nothing worthwhile is easy. Simply saying this is a normal statistical occurrence where results will always migrate to the 50/50 level is suspect for many reasons. There is nothing that says that equation will approach normality in any way when you add the human element to college football point spreads.
This final week gives us but two selections. We have Baylor, a team playing at an extremely low level with an interim coach and on the road against a good West Virginia team. We have 17.5 points indicating Baylor has simply given up. It is a lot of points and Baylor does have good athletes. West Virginia needs to cap off a good season with a big win. History says disappointment may be in the air. Add Wisconsin to this week’s pick as a small favorite over Penn State. They should cover the 2.5.
We started this project based on 100% complete transparency. And so we shall continue each week, regardless of performance.
Here is how it shapes up for the 13th week of the season:
Team # Favorite Picks: (FBS vs FBS teams)
334 Wisconsin -5 over Penn State
Team # Underdog Picks: (FBS vs FBS teams)
307 Baylor +17.5 to cover West Virginia
We use Covers.com as the source for compiling our won loss data. The final point spread at game time is the standard. Point spreads listed above are early week lines; however, very rarely will the algorithm indicate change or eliminate teams based on point spread movement.