In a normal season last week would have been classified as a one win ho-hum occurrence. Weeks such as this would be normal while waiting for the big winning weeks to come about. Unfortunately, the very start of this season foretold disaster and it was relentless for the first 10 weeks. Like we have said since the 3rd week, the only importance to this season is to identify the reason for the complete 100% turnaround in win loss results. The reason should jump out of the data once the season end analysis is completed.
Meanwhile, this week is rivalry week. In true rivalry games anything can happen. Arizona/Arizona State, Michigan/Ohio State, Oregon/Oregon State, Washington/Washington State, Purdue/Indiana, Kansas/Kansas State, Auburn/Alabama, Kentucky/Louisville, Florida/Florida State, South Carolina/Clemson to name just a few. Conventional knowledge goes out the window. But looking at things from a conventional viewpoint I would jump on Washington and Michigan. And a gift this week is TCU getting 3 points against Texas. Take TCU. Gary Patterson is as fiery during week 12 as he is on week 1. He will come to play. Texas lost to Kansas last week, enough said.
This list looks like a lot of lists from years past. They are not obvious to anyone but the numbers say theses selections are the likely winners. We are wrapping up the season misery this week as next week (Week 14) has but 8 games scheduled. Maybe a pick or two in the there but in a normal season, usually not. We shall see.
We started this project based on 100% complete transparency. And so we shall continue each week, regardless of performance.
Here is how it shapes up for the 13th week of the season:
Team # Favorite Picks: (FBS vs FBS teams)
113 LSU -5 over Texas A&M
189 Oregon -3 over Oregon State
146 Temple -20.5 over East Carolina
162 Wake Forest -3.5 over Boston College
204 UTSA -10 over Charlotte
224 San Diego ST -11.5 over Colorado St
Team # Underdog Picks: (FBS vs FBS teams)
207 Rice +35.5 to cover against Stanford
159 Michigan ST +12.5 to cover against Penn State
We use Covers.com as the source for compiling our won loss data. The final point spread at game time is the standard. Point spreads listed above are early week lines; however, very rarely will the algorithm indicate change or eliminate teams based on point spread movement.