When we introduced the tag line “You’re Smart, Just Bet Against Ed”, we didn’t intend for it to be so overwhelmingly true. You would be rich this season if you had. The losing continued in a big way this week (1-8). For us, we gave up on this being a winning season after Week 3 (0-7-1), when it was clear our algorithm was not in sync. At that time, we determined the importance of this season was to identify the factor, or factors, that caused the extreme shift exactly opposed to the previous 5 years experience.
Our algorithm clearly has obvious flaws not evident during the development. We continue to publish our results, however embarrassing, in order to establish a database for the complete season. At that time, we will analyze to identify what went so severely wrong in the algorithm.
This week had excellent results as far as providing the foundation for discovering what has caused the complete flip-flop. The record was 1 win (by 1/2 point) and 8 losses, further supporting the fact something is really powerful in our numbers that caused the shift. The worse the record this year, the better the chance of identifying exactly what happened.
We are getting good at identifying unworthy favorites. Southern Miss lost outright to Charlotte with Troy failing to cover the 23 by 1.
On the underdog side, all 5 lost to the spread. We had some good ones in there too. Iowa decided to lay down against Penn State, a team that obviously did not suffer the Ohio State victory letdown. LSU couldn’t score along with Missouri laying down to a poor South Carolina team. Boston College and Syracuse were complete embarrassments, never threatening after getting obnoxious bunches of points. We are much better at selecting favorites that won’t cover versus underdogs that will from a conventional viewpoint.
Four more weeks to go, from the ashes we will get stronger.
Go here to download our final tally sheet for week ten: For our complete Week 10, 2016 results (PDF format) click here.