Last week’s performance remains representative of this unexplainable season. One thing we are getting good at as seeing the list, then being able to pick the winner based on conventional factors. We thought all 3 underdogs were solid. Navy failed to cover by 1 with Utah and Nebraska covering. We would take 2 out of 3 anytime, and this came close to being 3 of 3. We cautioned Louisville as a big favorite and guess what, they were lucky to win the game at the last moment. When it is easy to see the conventional winning over the algorithm we know we have more development work in store.
This week we have some suspects. Again, Southern Miss is giving way too many points this late in the season. Same with Troy. The algorithm likes these guys but conventional knowledge says Charlotte and Massachusetts can keep these games close. All these teams are roughly equal.
On the underdog side, Boston College at home against Louisville with big points is a good bet. Missouri on the road against South Carolina is a good selection. These two teams are equal. And among the heavyweights, Iowa with points against Penn State is the steal of the week. Those two teams are equal with Penn State coming off the high of beating Ohio State. Getting +7.5 is a gift. And LSU at home against getting +8.5 against Alabama is a good play.
We started this project based on 100% complete transparency. And so we shall continue each week, regardless of performance.
Here is how it shapes up for the 10th week of the season:
Team # Favorite Picks: (FBS vs FBS teams)
374 Mississippi -27.5 over Georgia Southern
358 Southern Miss -19.5 over Charlotte
376 Troy -20.5 over Massachusetts
367 Georgia -2.5 over Kentucky
Team # Underdog Picks: (FBS vs FBS teams)
332 Boston College +25 to cover against Louisville
337 Syracuse +26 to cover against Clemson
381 Missouri +8.5 to cover against South Carolina
405 Iowa +7.5 to cover against Penn State
412 LSU +8.5 to cover against Alabama
We use Covers.com as the source for compiling our won loss data. The final point spread at game time is the standard. Point spreads listed above are early week lines; however, very rarely will the algorithm indicate change or eliminate teams based on point spread movement.