This did not happen by accident. As with anything worthwhile, the solution came together for Ed Stevens as the result of formal higher level of statistical education coupled with a lifelong attention to gaming, especially in reference to sportsbooks and the misleading concept of a point spread making a football contest a 50-50 proposition.
His first attempt at correlating numbers to performance came in 1989 with his publishing Parity Means Winning Power, a publication founded on the principal that a professional football team, having covered or not covered the spread the previous 2 weeks, would perform the opposite of that small trend.
“All pro football players are good, even the bad teams have great players. Plus it was a stated objective for the league to have parity, structuring the draft to reflect the worst teams getting the best new players”. Guess what? Along with covering slightly over 60% of the time, some teams would either cover or not cover about 80% of the time in certain situations. It’s tough for a pro team to cover the spread week in and week out.”
Through this initial study and publication, one thing became very clear and is now the focus of Ed Stevens. Given a similar specific situation, any given team performs in a predictable manner a large percentage of the time. Through this situational study over the years, he has been able to delve even further into what constitutes a “matching situation” in order to provide the best recommendation possible based on hard factual data.
In 2005 came pro basketball Winning Percentages, a critical look at how professional basketball teams performed during various length road trips, and a quick look at how they performed in the game following a specific length road trip. The numbers were surprising. Especially if aggregated according to average annual winning percentages.
Finally, the 2011 College Football Investment Guide was compiled. It was one of the most unique ways of interpreting commonly available statistics to arrive at a predictive percentage number. The 2011 College Football Investment Guide put the advantage back to the players sideline. By using specific situational analysis of given matchups, along with considering the known point spread bias for favorites, the Guide provided weekly recommendations that resulted in a solid winning season. Remember, this did not happen by accident. It is the culmination of years of researching the facts and developing sound reasonable numbers to interpret the facts.