This did not happen by accident. As with anything worthwhile, the solution came together for Ed Stevens as the result of a formal higher level of statistical education coupled with a lifelong attention to gaming. Especially in reference to the misleading concept of an arbitrary point spread making the football contest a 50-50 proposition.
His first attempt at correlating numbers to performance came in 1989 through publishing Parity Means Winning Power. A publication founded on the principal that a professional football team, having covered, or not covered, the spread the previous 2 weeks, would perform the opposite of that small trend.
“All pro football players are good, even the bad teams have great players. Plus it was a stated objective for the league to have parity, structuring the draft to reflect the worst teams getting the best new players”. Guess what? Along with covering slightly over 60% of the time, some teams would either cover or not cover about 80% of the time in certain situations. It’s tough for a pro team to cover the spread week in and week out.”
Through this initial study and publication, one thing became very clear and is now the focus. Given a similar specific situation, any given team performs in a predictable manner an identifiable percentage of the time.
After many years, the 2011 College Football Investment Guide was compiled. It was one of the most unique ways of interpreting commonly available statistics to arrive at a predictive percentage number. The 2011 College Football Investment Guide put the advantage back to the players sideline. By using specific situational analysis of given matchups, along with considering the known point spread bias for favorites, the Guide provided weekly recommendations that resulted in a solid winning season. Remember, this did not happen by accident. It is the culmination of years of researching the facts and developing sound reasonable numbers to interpret the facts.