Week 11 – Surprise Normality

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It took 11 weeks to see a result that approached normality. One of the reasons we created the algorithm was to eliminate conventional thinking and let the numbers forecast the outcome. The reasoning was the point spread, determined within the betting marketplace, takes into account all the known data factors that are easily accessible to the betting public. Leading to the assumption that the big hotels in Las Vegas are built with the money conventional bettors offer up through constant losing over time. This week was representative of what the algorithm should accomplish.

We made the traditional conventional thinking comments prior to the week. We said our Underdogs were horrible teams. All 3 covered. Rice has had a miserable season, playing Charlotte, a team showing signs of being a competitive. Rice won the game outright. Wake Forest covered by playing Louisville close for 3 quarters. Louisville couldn’t score enough style points that late in the game to cover. And USC looked like USC. Beating an undefeated Washington team on their field. The algorithm had all 3 winning underdogs in the face of conventional knowledge that said all 3 should lose.

On the favorites side we commented Texas was not a good favorite. That was clear to anyone that has seen Texas play. As has been the case in the past years, it is hard to go with a team you know is severely deficient in a particular situation. But we do it as the algorithm has to prove itself in all defined game situations to be valuable. But Penn State performed on the road against Indiana, doing exactly as the algorithm projected.

This is too little, too late this late in the season, for this to approach anything respectable. Our analysis at the end of the year will be the only important thing to happen from this year’s results.

Go here to download our final tally sheet for week eleven: For our complete Week 11, 2016 results (PDF format) click here.