Week 11 – Newsletter with predictions

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The madness continues.  Last week we were 1 Win 8 Losses, further evidence the algorithm is missing an extremely potent ingredient.  Don’t misunderstand, we are dedicated to winning, but we recognized early something was severely out of sync. And smart investors cut recognized losses quickly, just as we did during Wee 3-4. This season is unexplainable at this time, from the algorithm point of view.  And it can happen.  Every pollster for the presidential election had the numbers within the equation correct, but their underlying assumptions for those numbers missed the main ingredient that caused such a major shift in forecasted results.  With our algorithm this year, we are in exactly the same spot.  A solid equation, just missing a major ingredient.  And we will find those missing ingredients once the season is concluded.

Our list this week is again suspect from a conventional point of view.  Texas is at home but West Virginia is a better team.  Texas is not a good favorite.  Penn State is on the road at Indiana riding a wave.  But Indiana is a sleeper getting points at home.  Look for a close game.  Our Underdogs are horrible.  Rice is not even competitive this year, look for Charlotte, and up and coming team, to play well at home.

We started this project based on 100% complete transparency.   And so we shall continue each week, regardless of performance.

Here is how it shapes up for the 10th week of the season:

 

Team # Favorite Picks:   (FBS vs FBS teams)

198                  Texas                 -2        over West Virginia
178                  Michigan State  -14       over Rutgers
127                  Penn State          -6.5       over Indiana
193                  Boise State         -17.5     over Hawaii
190                  UCLA                -12        over Oregon State
154                  Air Force           -5.5       over Colorado State

Team # Underdog  Picks:  (FBS vs FBS teams)

147                  Rice                    +10.5   to cover against Charlotte
129                  Wake Forest        +34.5   to cover against Louisville
187                  USC                      +8.5    to cover against Washington

We use Covers.com as the source for compiling our won loss data.  The final point spread at game time is the standard. Point spreads listed above are early week lines; however, very rarely will the algorithm indicate change or eliminate teams based on point spread movement.