Week 7 – Nothing to Get Excited About

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The first half (7 weeks) of the season have resembled a train wreck in terms of wins and losses. This week was a net one winner but was statistically meaningless.

Like every other week this season, the slate looked fairly good early in the day but ended with 2 losses (Ohio State and Boise State) to finish 5-4. For conventional bettors the Ohio State bet, a 10 point favorite, was an easy call. Wisconsin beat Michigan State on the road and was a really good team playing at home. Urban Meyer was simply trying to win the game. No style points needed in this game, a simple win would overwhelmingly be acceptable to the pollsters. Taking the 10 points was an easy decision in this game. But the algorithm calculated differently.

This story seems to be representative of this season. When we look at the list of big favorites previously selected it is clear there were many obvious reasons for the algorithm to be wrong. Again, what is important this season is what statistical revelation will become obvious that has caused the complete win-loss reversal as evidenced by the last 4 years.

I expect the last half of the season to resemble the first half. And then the analysis will begin.

Go here to download our final tally sheet for week seven: For our complete Week 7, 2016 results (PDF format) click here.