Here in the early part of the season we have patiently awaited for the algorithm to show signs of life. At this juncture it is clear there is a major force that has flipped the algorithm to exactly the reverse of what was expected. This year is the exact reverse of the trends specified in the algorithm for the previous 4 years. And it is not the just a non-performance 50/50 or 45/55 split. It is 33% winners, meaning 67% losers. That is what stands out. Not just a loser, but a severe loser. That means the reason for the complete reversal will be clearly evident upon analysis. This year is a loss. With the way the alogrithm has performed we have given back the wins we had from last year. Time to take a break, and research the algorithm results at the end of the year.
We will continue to publish even though it is highly unlikely this year will resemble anything like a winner. What we are looking for is the trend. What is the force (that can be numerically quantified) that explains this complete flip/flop. My preference at this time is the algorithm continue to be a horrible loser. And the factors that caused the complete flip flop reveal themselves clearly.
We started this project based on 100% complete transparency. And so we shall continue each week regardless of performance. The change from here forward will be specific comments on games the algorithm has selected. The specific comments will be directed at who should win based on a couple of other factors.
The time to get better is now. No time to sit and fret. We were a net 23 games winner last year. Right now we are 16 games down. From here forward we are publishing simply to establish the year as we started. The end of year analysis will determine why the complete flip/flop. It certainly is evident our algorithm is incomplete at this stage.
Go here to download our final tally sheet for week five: For our complete Week 5, 2016 results (PDF format) click here.