You’re Smart, Just Bet Against Ed!
Goals set prior to the 2011 College Football Season.
1. Publish all selections on the INTERNET.
2. Beat Wall Street average investment returns.
3. Design a selections statistical system.
4. Find high percentage game situations.
5. Consider all games from all major conferences.
6. Recognize Las Vegas cappers serve themselves.
7. Accept TV sports analysts are poor forecasters.
Here is how we met those goals.
1. Selections were published prior to kickoff.
2. Profits overwhelmed Wall Street returns.
3. Developed a factual statistical system.
4. Found high percentage game situations.
5. Analyzed weekly all FBS college games.
6. Acknowledged Las Vegas cappers serve themselves.
7. Realized TV sports analysts are awful pickers.
2015 – A STRONG WINNING SEASON
Total Wins: 74
Total Losses: 51
Total Number of Picks: 125
Win Percentage: 59.2 %
Return On Exposed Capital: 122.6 % (14 weeks)
Return On Exposed Capital: 490.4 % (Annualized)
Best Winning Week: (Week 10) Record 11-2
Best Financial Position: (Week 10) Record: 58-37
Unlike last year, we finished our final week almost perfect. There were only 3 selections, finishing with 2 wins and a push. We surpassed the magical 60% mark late in the season. Beating Wall Street was easy as the stock market was a loser (S&P -1.7 %; US Bond Index 3.6 %). Conventional Investments were also meager (5 Yr Bank CD 2.2 %; Gold -10.5%).
2014 – A SOLID WINNING SEASON
Total Wins: 72
Total Losses: 61
Total Number of Picks: 133
Win Percentage: 54.1 %
Return On Exposed Capital: 34.3 % (14 weeks)
Return On Exposed Capital: 127.0 % (Annualized)
Best Winning Week: (Week 9) Record 8-2
Best Financial Position: (Week 13) Record: 70-54
A great season was reduced to a solid winning season due to the final week of the season. Week 14 had a lot of teams running for the bus resulting in a 2-7 record. Regardless, the season was a financial success. We soundly beat a good year on Wall Street(S&P 500 10 %; US Bond Index 5.19 %), and every other investment category (5 Yr Bank CD 1.7 %; Gold 1.8 %).
We have learned the hard way not to question our own algorithm. Every time we do, the results come back to haunt. Plus we are reminded the algorithm of our creation is rooted in sound principles. This year, 2015, had a perfect example. For Week 1 we did not publish Northwestern and SMU, thinking those two teams were certain losers. Our algorithm was firm in the calculations for both. Northwestern was opening up against Stanford as an 11.5 point underdog. We thought Stanford would overwhelm Northwestern. The result was Northwestern won the game outright 16-6. SMU was playing the powerhouse Baylor as a 36 point underdog. Considering SMU was coming off a season when they weren’t at all competitive, plus Baylor is now an established early season scoring machine, we also passed on publishing this pick. SMU lost 56-21 but covered the spread by 1. For the 2015 year we robbed ourselves of 2 wins. The remainder of the year we stuck to the algorithm like a religion. Lesson learned again, we will always stick to the algorithm regardless of what we think. Conventional thinking leads to losing, the very reason we originally developed the algorithm.